Portsmouth Uni research predicts survival time at sea

Researchers are developing a new computer model to predict how long someone will survive when lost at sea, which will in turn determine when a search and rescue operation may be stopped.

"Using this new computer model will take pressure off humans making very emotional and sensitive decisions about when to end a search." said Professor Mike Tipton, human and applied physiologist from the University of Portsmouth.

"When the model predicts that a victim can no longer survive, the search and rescue team can stop or redeploy the search."

"It will ensure that Coast Guard personnel are not exposed to the high risks associated with search and rescue operations any longer than necessary and will also help to save time and resources." he said.

Some systems are already in place for modelling how people drift in open water: for instance, the US Coastguard currently uses a software system known as SAROPS (Search and Rescue Optimal Planning System) to calculate how far a person will have drifted and how large the search area should be.

The model will be initially trialled in early 2009 in the US. If it is successful then it will be rolled out across the US, and, presumably, from there to the UK and other diver-intensive areas, such as Egypt.